THE STEEL THREAD October 11, 2024

An economist at Tel Aviv University and an ancient king reveal much about the outcome of the war Israel is waging against Iran’s proxies, and so Iran itself.

On Monday, Tom Friedman in The New York Times (“What I’m Thinking About on the First Anniversary of the War”) cited the economist Dan Ben-David of Tel Aviv University. Ben-David’s mother was smuggled to Palestine from Iraq at 13. His father survived the Holocaust. Ben-David’s parents stressed to him that Israel’s haven for Jews depended on democracy and the rule of law.

That, according to Ben-David, “was the thread of steel that has bound each generation to our founding one. It creates a situation that makes Israel unique, and not just in comparison with those who want to annihilate us.”

You’d ordinarily think a “thread of steel” refers to military strength. No. Ben David’s “thread of steel” eclipses military might, albeit necessary. Israel will thrive only when democracy and the rule of law serve the nation—not just Jews but all Israel’s citizens.

A year ago, I couldn’t imagine that the war against Hamas and Hezbollah would last past a few months. Israel has dealt Hamas and Hezbollah serious blows. Hostilities continue. For how long? Hamas’s leader Yahya Sinwar appears ready to fight to the last Gazan. What’s left of Hezbollah’s leadership demonstrates no concern for the Lebanese people. 

Still, Hamas still holds 101 Israeli hostages, many believed dead. Yet Israeli prime minister Bibi Netanyahu seems more focused on military victory. What lies beyond? Bibi offers no vision for true peace in the region.

Now, let’s turn to King Pyrrhus of Epirus, a coastal region of northwestern Greece and southern Albania. Early in the Third Century BCE, Pyrrhus led an army of 25,000 soldiers and 20 elephants against Roman forces advancing on Tarentum (modern Taranto). Pyrrhus won the first two battles. His exhausted forces lost the third. Victory proved hollow. Hence the term “Pyrrhic victory.”

I don’t believe Israel will suffer a military defeat against Iran’s proxies. But the war is taking its toll, both as measured by Israeli Defense Forces casualties (far fewer than that of the proxies) and Israeli morale. The hostages remain in captivity indefinitely with no announced end-game. The economy has been dealt a blow.

Five or ten years after the war ends, Israel may well face the same threats and have to repeat what Israelis call “mowing the grass.” The grass may be unexpectedly tall.

At some point, Israelis will have to exercise their vote to choose a government whose policies go beyond the military thread of steel to the diplomatic one. Netanyahu’s hostility towards a Palestinian state is poisoning the future. A Palestinian state is required. It can be achieved—with difficulty—through security and economic alliances with the West and Arab nations, including pivotal Saudi Arabia. A Palestinian state within such an alliance would isolate Iran, which no longer could claim to champion the Palestinian people, whom it continues to let suffer. And suffer. And suffer.

I offer no guaranty of success. But the expectation that the war’s conclusion alone will bring Israel peace is delusional. Only Dan Ben-David’s steel thread can bind Israel, the Palestinians and the Arab states into a cohesive region—and begin to bind old wounds.

If you’re observing Yom Kippur, may you find atonement and redemption in any way you interpret that, and may the new year bring you peace. The same to you if you’re not.

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