NUKING EGG PRICES March 21, 2025

Mea culpa! I didn’t understand Donald Trump when, during the presidential campaign, he said that “starting on Day 1,” he would drive down inflation, including egg prices. 

I didn’t comprehend during his inaugural address when he proclaimed that “the golden age of America begins right now.” 

Now, I get it. 

The President of the United States is prepared to drop an economic nuke on America, and we should be grateful. Tariffs and mass firings of government employees may lead the nation into recession, but according to Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, Trump’s policies are “worth it.” 

Take more and bigger tariffs. The American importer, not the country of origin, pays. Importers and manufacturers can pass the extra cost on to consumers, or eat some or all of those costs

In theory, American-made goods will become cheaper than imports. In reality, American companies importing foreign goods, parts, or materials may raise their prices. Consumers and businesses may pay less for American-made goods than for imports, but more than they’re paying now. Higher prices translate to inflation.

If manufacturers and distributors eat most or all the costs, they can hold prices steady. But that will shrink profit margins. Companies will lay off workers and try to squeeze more productivity over those who remain. But human beings can only be squeezed so far.

Bottom line: We face a big risk of rising prices, and shrinking consumer and business buying, resulting in higher unemployment: recession.

I’ve lived through enough recessions to get a grasp on what they can do. More and more Americans’ income drops or disappears. Those fortunate to get unemployment benefits have less money in their bank accounts. To spur buying, retailers lower prices (“stagflation” in the 1970s was an exception), but consumers have less money and buy less. Business problems grow. Oh, and tax revenues fall.

Real—as opposed to theoretical—people suffer. They put less healthy food on the table. Skip mortgage and rent payments, risking homelessness. Skip vehicle payments, too. Run up credit card debt. Find higher education unattainable. And lack health coverage, forcing them to go to emergency rooms. Communities, i.e. those who are still taxpayers, pick up the very expensive tab.

Recessions don’t last forever but can cause lots of pain and some permanent, destructive disruption. 

Egg prices? They’ll drop. They seem to be dropping now. H5 Bird Flu infected well over 100 million American chickens. They had to be destroyed. Fewer healthy hens meant fewer eggs, higher prices. Now, healthy chickens are breeding. Hens will produce more eggs, reducing prices.

Donald Trump doubtless will take a victory lap. He’ll crow a lot but with egg on his face. 

If Trump drops the economic nuke, I know who won’t suffer: Donald Trump, JD Vance, Elon Musk, the MAGA toadies in Congress, and the billionaires and near-billionaires sucking up to the White House. They have bomb shelters constructed of money and the promise of more.

Then again, some Americans will approve of Trump’s advice that things may get worse before they become fantastic. They’ll find comfort in retreating egg prices—if they can afford eggs. They’ll support Trump’s philosophy: No pain, no gain. Warning: Your pain, his gain.

And weren’t the wars in Ukraine and Gaza supposed to be over two months ago?  

Please pass on this post.

Order my novel, TAKING STOCK (Kirkus Reviews starred selection) in softcover or e-book from Amazon, barnesandnoble.com or iuniverse.com. Or from your favorite bookstore. To see where America may be heading, also order my novel, 2084.