ANOTHER MIDEAST MUDDLE December 19, 2024

With Syria’s Bashar al-Assad and the 53-year-old Assad family rule overthrown, an old adage arises in the Middle East: Be careful what you wish for.

But wish we must, then take care following up.

The Middle East has been a highly unstable region not just in recent decades but throughout history. For centuries, competing caliphs and emirs fought for power throughout the vast Muslim world. The collapsing Turkish Empire gave way to post-World War One mandate rule by Britain and France. When independent nations were established following World War Two, chaos ensued.

Egypt’s dictatorships. Libya’s Muammar Gaddafi. Sadam Husein’s reign of terror in Iraq. The Iranian revolution in 1979 that overthrew the Shah, producing not democracy but a vicious theocracy. We’ve also seen the fragile monarchy in Jordan, civil war in Lebanon and Yemen, the emergence of Al Qaeda and ISIS. Oil-rich Saudi Arabia contributed 19 of 20 September 11 terrorists and butchered journalist Jamal Khashoggi. The failure of Arab Spring in 2011. And Israel’s many wars to keep from being annihilated.

Yes, the United States has had a hand in much of the unrest. But don’t overlook sectarian hatred with Sunnis opposing Shiites, Islamist extremism (Al Qaeda, ISIS), tribal frictions, endemic corruption and a lack of democratic institutions that made the sword mightier than the pen, although the pen represents the Qu’ran.

True, the Assad regime’s collapse has further weakened Iran and its Shiite axis of resistance to Israel, America and the West. But the rebels constitute a variety of groups, and unity in the Middle East historically is difficult to attain. In the near term, Syrians of all Muslim sects and non-Muslims may enjoy new freedoms. Perhaps many refugees will return home, or to what is left of their homes, following the long civil war made bloodier by Russia’s Vladimir Putin.

Will Iran, with Hamas and Hezbollah crippled, Bashar al-Assad fled to Moscow, and its air defenses seriously damaged, change its behavior? Will the ayatollahs disavow Israel’s destruction and reach out to the West? Will the Iranian people see an opportunity to topple the regime? 

Israel and Hamas might reach a ceasefire agreement that takes Hamas somewhat (greatly?) out of play in Gaza. The hostages may come home. Israelis may even turn out their far-right extremists to strengthen Israeli democracy. 

Or not.

I never look at the Middle East through rose-coloreds glasses. The lenses tend to be tinted with blood. In an era in which nations in other regions are ruled by autocrats like Putin, Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Hungary’s Victor Orbán and North Korea’s Kim Jung-un—all admired by a democratically elected president like Donald Trump—expecting significant change in the Middle East can lead to deep disappointment. But total disengagement can spur further instability.

Where does the Middle East go from here? As Tom Friedman wrote in The New York Times (December 13), “A happy ending in Syria is a low-probability outcome, but it offers an enormous payoff for the Syrian people and the whole region…. But it will not happen without American help and leadership and some consistent and tough-minded diplomacy, ready to risk failure and ready to understand that benign neglect could be hugely costly to our allies.”

Given the muddle, you define happy ending. But America must play its role.

Please pass on this post. 

The post will take next week off and return on Friday, January 3. Happy Chanukah, Merry Christmas, Happy Kwanzaa and to all, may this New Year bring peace and harmony.

Order my new novel, TAKING STOCK (Kirkus Reviews starred selection) in softcover or e-book from Amazon, barnesandnoble.com or iuniverse.com. Or from your favorite bookstore.