AFTER SINWAR, WHAT? October 18, 2024
IDF troops killed Yahya Sinwar, Hamas’ architect of October 7, prompting me to ask, where do we go from here?
I wish the shop had repaired my crystal ball, but a text broke the bad news. No more peeks into the future for me. That’s typical for someone at age 80, who learns that the more we know, the less we know.
As to Sinwar, the plotter of murder, rape and torture met his just desserts. A fierce Islamist (as opposed to faithful Muslim), he was dedicated to the destruction of Israel and the death of Jews. The media has called him Israel’s Osama Bin Laden. I remember Bin Laden’s death, of which I also was glad.
Hamas has been weakened yet again and, now, even more severely. But Sinwar’s death provides many more questions than answers.
• Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu offered individuals who hold hostages a peaceful way out if they release their hostages. Hamas alone does not hold hostages—living and dead. What decisions will individual groups make? Will they see a role in ending the war in Gaza? Do they care? Will they execute the living hostages in revenge?
• Will Hamas, its leadership in tatters, believe it necessary to agree to a ceasefire? Will a single leader or a coalition in Hamas’ infrastructure—military and political—emerge with the power to call for a ceasefire? Will various Hamas groups agree to that decision? Will other Islamist groups in Gaza, like Islamic Jihad?
• What might be the terms of a ceasefire? The hostages must be returned, of course. In stages? All at once? Will the IDF withdraw from Gaza step by step or all at once? Will the IDF remain in some parts of Gaza? Can a ceasefire be reached soon? Can it be reached at all?
• After a ceasefire, what? Who will run Gaza? Netanyahu will not allow Hamas to do it. Might he agree to have selected surviving Hamas leadership pledge to reject Hamas’ desire to destroy Israel so they can play a limited role in a Gazan administration? Will Netanyahu allow the Palestinian Authority—revamped—to lead the way? Will an international force try to keep the peace and direct rebuilding, including Israel, America, Saudi Arabia and the U.A.E.? Will Israel administer Gaza alone, risking further global condemnation and exposing the IDF to continuing danger?
• What will be Iran’s next play? Netanyahu has said that Israel has prepared targets to retaliate for the last Iranian missile attack. Will Israel do so, or hold off pending Iran’s response to Sinwar’s death and an evolving situation on the ground?
• Will Netanyahu declare victory, take a step back and come out for the possibility of a two-state solution? Or, re questions of Gazan administration above, will he continue to rule that out? If he will not accept a two-state solution—albeit rigorously framed, hence no easy task—will he have delivered to Israel a meaningful, let alone permanent, peace?
It’s possible to respond: Why ask those questions at all if they’re so baffling? My answer: Without asking questions, we can’t begin to arrive at answers.
Much difficult discussion and debate lie ahead. But as the old Chinese proverb goes, “A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step.”
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In none of the commentary I have seen (yours, Tom Friedman’s and more) has anyone mentioned the new round of generational trauma and desire for revenge that both the Palestinians and the Israelis are likely to feel in the aftermath of this brutal war. Sadly, whatever deals are reached, I see new rounds of randomly occurring outbursts going on for years. How can that be mitigated?
Great observation, Ellen. I won’t offer you a magic formula. Those went the way of my crystal ball. I would hope that hatred would be dealt with through practical means that rebuild Gaza, offer the Palestinians the opportunity to build their own state without the destruction Israel, and bring robust security forces into play to tamp down or eliminate those who want to keep fighting. I go back to a statement by Golda Meir, who said that she took the enemies of Israel to task not for killing Israel’s sons and daughters but making Israel kill theirs. Perhaps both Palestinians and Israelis will see the futility of violence despite their emotions, that they’ll look forward rather than backward–particularly as tangible steps towards recovery and peace advance.
Other enemies have become generational friends, Viet Nam, Germany, Japan. With the right post war rehabilitation, things can happen. The issue is how will it be resolved?
Yes, Sandy, peace beats war. A lot of people are going to have to come to that conclusion. I believe they can.
At a time when we need the most brilliant leaders we have the worst, Netanyahu, God forbid Trump. Eisenhower made sure the world saw what Hitler did. Time to rewatch Ken Burns The Untied States and the Holocaust. We can learn from that end of war and hopefully do some of the good things that were done post.
The past is a great teacher, Sandy. We have to do that and look forward at the same time.