Wednesday’s San Francisco Chronicle headlined, “GOP near tax, health wins.” Mid-morning, the tax bill passed. Not a single Democrat voted yes. The New York Times reported, “Victory for G.O.P. as House Clears Way for Trump Signature.” I used to think winning only involved sports and the Oscars. My bad—and America’s.
Will the new tax law promote the general welfare? Trickle-down economics has failed in the past, but circumstances change in every generation. What concerns me more is the attitude in Congress and the White House—and it’s not new—that the most critical reason to pass legislation is to defeat the other party. “Winning” equates with moral superiority. Only secondarily do politicians consider the nation’s wellbeing.
The new tax law certainly will impact the economy short-term and long-. Republicans see the gross domestic product (GDP) soaring, bringing Washington increased tax revenues—at lower rates, of course—to counter the projected additional $1.5 trillion deficit.
Most Americans, however, don’t see themselves winning. According to cnbc.com, an NBC/Wall Street Journal poll released on Tuesday “shows that just 24 percent of Americans believe the president’s tax plan is a good idea – barely more than half of the 41 percent who call it a bad idea.” Moreover, “by an overwhelming 63 percent to 7 percent margin, Americans say the plan was designed to help corporations and the wealthy rather than the middle class.”
The same cnbc.com report states, “there are signs that the tax debate has taken a political toll on Republicans and the president alike.” Do the “winners” care? Stated cnbc.com, “Dozens of lawmakers stand to reap a tax windfall thanks to a loophole inserted in the sweeping GOP tax overhaul bill, according to a review of federal financial disclosures.”
Donald Trump may not have helped his and the Republican cause when on Wednesday he announced, “I shouldn’t say this, but we essentially repealed Obamacare.” Has he thrown the healthcare system into chaos? If so, how will millions of affected Americans respond?
Of course, the mega-rich—including Trump—will win big. A coterie of far-right political donors, including the Koch Brothers, will reap a major return on their investment not only in the Republican party and its candidates but also in political action committees, think tanks and trade associations, as well as shell organizations designed to hide their tax-deductible contributions. For the frightening details, read Jean Mayer’s Dark Money: The Hidden History of the Billionaires Behind the Rise of the Radical Right.
The new tax law also will provide more work for CPAs and tax attorneys. They always win with the arrival of new legislation.
So, short term, the economy and stock market may spike, boosting Republican hopes to hold both houses of Congress in the 2018 midterm elections. But the nation risks experiencing what one TV commentator termed “a sugar high”—a burst of economic energy followed by a crash. If so, Trump supporters also will feel pain. The deficit—once an object of Republican concern—may grow so large that even Democrats express heartfelt concern. And in 2025, most middle-class Americans’ taxes will go up.
Let’s get real. No legislation is perfect. But laws passed without a meaningful measure of bipartisan support deliver “wins” that leave more than the minority party as losers.
To you who celebrate Christmas—Merry Christmas! May the holiday renew your spirits. To all: Happy New Year!
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