A major announcement or carefully placed leak from the Mueller Commission linking Donald Trump to Russia’s attempts to sway the 2016 presidential election will hit the media between February 1 and March 31. The news will come as the nation prepares for Congressional primary elections. How do I know? Some canaries are about to sing.
This week, a federal grand jury indicted former Trump campaign manager Paul Manafort and his business (lobbying) partner Rick Gates on a dozen charges, including conspiracy. Only a jury can determine guilt. Yet it’s unlikely either man will go to trial.
Further, unsealed court documents reveal that a former Trump campaign adviser on foreign affairs, George Papadopolous, pleaded guilty to lying about Russia offering the Trump campaign emails containing dirt on Hillary Clinton. Don’t expect Papadopolous to receive prison time.
I don’t suggest that the Justice Department will overlook evidence secured by Mueller. Quite the opposite. Manafort and Gates were arrested and released on bail of $10 million and $5 million respectively. They’re under house arrest, their passports confiscated. Mueller would not have sought indictments if he didn’t believe he had conclusive evidence.
Of course, Mueller could have waited. But it appears that at this point in the investigation, the time is right to offer Manafort and Gates a choice: come clean or face harsh prison sentences. And let others involved in the matter know about it.
The Papadopolous disclosure sends an added message: If you stuck your toes in the muddy waters of collusion with Russia or know anything about it, speak up. Papadopolous doubtless has sung. Were you named? Come forward now or risk a federal indictment.
Two arrests and a plea bargain represent not the end of the investigation but the beginning. Its pace likely will pick up. Robert Mueller and his staff doubtless know more about possible collusion with Russia than does the public. When these three canaries sing, the commission may learn a lot more. And additional canaries may flock to Mueller to warble about people higher in the pecking order.
Why wouldn’t they? Men of integrity might take the hit to protect another man of integrity wrongly accused. But Manafort, Gates and Papadopolous look no more like men of integrity than Harvey Weinstein. It’s just that they preferred to screw the United States instead of Hollywood stars and wannabes.
Moreover, they know that Trump would never take the hit for them.
The arc of the Mueller investigation likely will bend towards a faster, rather than slower, conclusion. This will enable Americans to go to the polls this primary season and make better-informed decisions regarding candidates who deny collusion and support Trump versus candidates who remain open to the Mueller Commission’s investigation, see the pattern that keeps emerging and distance themselves from Trump.
Will this entail politicizing the commission? Withholding information could bring the same accusation. Better to enable voters to make important choices based on knowledge—at least those voters who don’t believe in alternative facts.
Trump’s base? They’ll close their eyes to Mueller’s findings, no matter how blatant the violations of ethics and the law. But Trump’s hard-core supporters will be unable to silence the bittersweet chirping of more canaries who prefer coming clean to being caged.
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