A TRULY PIVOTAL 2024 December 29, 2023
Every New Year brings hopes and fears but 2024 will play a particularly pivotal role in history.
Take November’s election. Donald Trump likely will secure the Republican nomination unless his legal woes and outrageous statements bring some Republicans to their senses—or he’s banned from enough state ballots. The Atlantic’s January/February 2024 issue posits what might happen if Trump defeats Joe Biden. I haven’t finished the magazine, but here are takes from five of the two-dozen contributors.
David Frum, “The Revenge Presidency”: “Trump will commit the first crime of his second term at noon on Inauguration Day: His oath to defend the Constitution of the United States will be a perjury.” Anne Applebaum, “America Will Abandon NATO”: “Once Trump has made clear that he no longer supports NATO, all of America’s other security alliances would be in jeopardy as well.” McCay Coppins, “Loyalists, Lapdogs and Cronies”: “[Trump] will sign an executive order eliminating civil-service protections for up to 50,000 federal workers, effectively making the people in those roles political appointees.”
Barton Gellman, “Trump Will Get Away With It”: “We know what Trump would like to do with that power [as chief law-enforcement officer of the United States], because he’s said so out loud. He is driven by self-interest and revenge, in that order. He wants to squelch the criminal charges now pending against him, and he wants to redeploy federal prosecutors against his enemies, beginning with President Joe Biden.” George Packer, “Is Journalism Ready?”: “The conservative supermajority on the Supreme Court might be less likely to defend press freedom during a second Trump term than the Court has been in the past.”
If Trump wins, will American democracy be toast? Very possibly. There’s also the rest of the world to consider.
We’ll probably see the end of the Israel–Hamas war. Will Israelis elect a new, centrist government, ousting Benjamin Netanyahu, whose corruption trial will then move forward? Will the new government in Jerusalem pursue a two-state solution and have the fortitude to stave off the far right? Will new Palestinian leaders emerge, both capable and pledging to work towards two states? Or, will Israel and the Palestinians remain at loggerheads, producing an angrier Arab street, continuing unrest and an Iranian-instigated regional war?
Ukraine will enter its third year of war with Russia. Will Ukraine and Russia exhaust themselves and arrive at a peace deal? (Russia, having conquered some territory but still been rebuffed, would declare victory.) Or will Ukraine collapse, Russia enter Kyiv, and nations on Russia’s borders feel forced to make accommodations with Moscow?
Of course, 2024 could tip towards the positive. The economy’s upward trend might help Biden win re-election. Israel and the Palestinians could be jolted towards seeking meaningful peace. Ukraine, even following a stalemate, might finally attain membership in the European Union.
At home, Congress and the American public might begin an objective discussion of our immigration laws. A woman’s right to abortion might get a boost following many states’ draconian laws. Antisemitism might abate (though never disappear). Climate control initiatives might move forward. And San Francisco might take a solid step up towards recovery.
Take a breath, count your blessings and maybe say a little prayer that sanity, which isn’t political, will prevail. If it doesn’t, summon the courage to hang on.
Feel free to pass on this post.
Order The Short (Pun Intended) Redemptive Life of Little Ned in softcover or e-book from Amazon, barnesandnoble.com or iuniverse.com. Or your favorite bookstore.
I remember the old typing exercise: “Now is the time for all good men to come to the aid of the party.” Indeed it is. Now is the time for all of us to support those organizations and candidates who are fighting the good fight here, in Israel and around the world. At a minimum that means donating to the campaigns of endangered Democratic senators and congresspeople and Democratic candidates who have plausible chances of ousting Trump’s enablers. It also means getting involved in get-out-the-vote campaigns. And it means supporting — more money — organizations that are working to foster democratic, pluralistic values here and in Israel.
This is not the time to stand on the sidelines, because there are no sidelines. We are all on the field whether we like it or not. It’s time to be in the game.
Well said, David.
Dear Davids. I agree with you both with one caveat: I believe the pivotal point has passed us. We focus on politics, political leaders, the politics of war and of poverty all of which are crucial. However, no elected official is going to bring us back to the past. The point that has passed us is our present, influenced by Covid, outrageous poverty, widely changing demographics, influencing not only where we are relocating, but where we can relocate. Our economy is ok, but with the changes in our relationships with each other, think AI, think the corporate takeover of medicine, we have already pivoted drastically from our very recent financial realities. We live in a new world, it may be one that we only understand retrospectively. My prayer for the future, whatever that may be, is that we retain our humanity.
Thanks, Jean. May we grapple with our new world — it has always been changing — and find new solutions to difficult problems.
Whew! Nice post, David. You lay out the stakes of 2024 very clearly, and it’s…. scary.
Thanks, George. Scary, indeed!